Read Between the Numbers

Every month, another report or chart shows up telling us the economy is “growing.” A line is moving up, a percentage looks better than last month, and the headline feels reassuring. But if you stop there, you could be making decisions on half-truths.

Growth isn’t always what it looks like. Sometimes numbers spike because people rush to buy before tariffs hit, or companies stock up on inventory out of fear. That doesn’t mean real demand is growing. It means demand was pulled forward, leaving a hole behind it. The chart says growth, but the reality could be risk. 

It is often reckless to present only part of the picture.

For small businesses, that difference matters. If you believe the surface-level story, you might overextend at the exact moment you should be cautious. You might copy a competitor’s move that only worked because of a one-time event. Bigger companies can survive those mistakes. Smaller ones often can’t.

Think of it like marketing. A brand can go viral overnight, but that doesn’t guarantee staying power. If the foundation isn’t strong, the spike is temporary. The same goes for economic statistics. A number can pop for a month or two while the long-term trend is pointing down.

The smartest move isn’t to distrust every report. It’s to put the numbers in context. Compare the short-term changes to the longer trend. Ask what outside factors might be influencing the result. Recognize that volatility dressed up as growth can do more harm than good if you treat it as a green light.

There is scientific evidence as it relates to biases that come into play in these situations. The stock market acknowledges these peaks and valleys on graphics and will analyize them over time. For some reason, this isn't he case when data is shared about the economy. There's no red or green light on a stock app or website to tell you to be moderate or quick to move with your own business. At least not with real-time access that isn't biased by news source or organizations with stories to tell. 

Paying Attention To Cognitive Biases

Bias / Fallacy What It Means

Cherry-Picking -----> Pick only favorable data; ignore context or full trend

Confirmation Bias-----> Favor data supporting your view; overlook contradicting info

Selection Bias-----> Use biased sample/data that isn’t representative

Data Dredging-----> Test multiple angles and only report the “significant” ones

Bringing Psychology into the equation might seem like a bit much. The problem is, it isimportant to understand how you see the information people are presenting. 

There are several more in play often in business. Here are others to check out to see if you are applying any to your decision-making processes.

Cognitive Bias List: 13 Common Types of Bias

READ MORE ABOUT CHERRYPICKING HERE: https://quillbot.com/blog/reasoning/cherry-picking-fallacy/?

Marketing & Branding Connection

Cognitive biases play a big role in how people read charts and headlines. When a graph points upward, confirmation bias makes us want to believe it means growth. Anchoring bias locks our perception on the latest number instead of the longer trend. The framing effect makes “expansion” sound like opportunity even if it’s driven by short-term panic buying. In branding and marketing, the same psychology explains why customers trust familiar names, follow what others are doing, or jump at “don’t miss out” offers. 

The danger is that without context, these biases push people toward decisions that feel right in the moment but are risky in reality. It is why it is important to diversify your revenue streams in many cases. Listen to your consultants, marketing professionals, and analysts. They can help clear pathways to less risky revenue options with lower overhead so that those pesky peaks and valleys don't kick you in the butt and the worst possible time. 

Headlines are written to grab attention. Your job as a decision-maker is to ask the next question before you act. That’s how you protect your business from half-truths and make decisions that actually stick.